News

Demographic projections are central to understanding how populations evolve and to planning for the future. Governments, international organisations, and researchers rely on forecasts of fertility, mortality, and migration to anticipate demand for schools, healthcare systems, housing, and pensions. Yet producing reliable projections remains a complex task. Population processes are shaped by changing social norms, economic conditions, and individual decision-making, all of which introduce uncertainty and make it difficult to capture future trends accurately.

On 19 March 2026, the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science (LCDS) at the University of Oxford brought together researchers, collaborators, industry and government for its annual Demographic Science Summit at Worcester College, Oxford. The event provided an opportunity to reflect on what has been an exceptionally productive year for the centre — marked by rapid growth, an expanding research community, and a remarkable output of new demographic and interdisciplinary research.

The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped mortality across the world, but official COVID-19 death counts often tell only part of the story. In countries where reporting practices differ or health systems are under strain, many pandemic-related deaths may be hidden in other causes. Understanding the true impact of the pandemic therefore requires looking beyond COVID-19 itself. In this new working paper, Ekaterina Degtiareva, whose PhD research is based at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science (LCDS), together with Sergey Timonin, Andrea Tilstra (LCDS), and José Manuel Aburto, provide the first detailed cause-specific analysis of excess mortality in Russia during 2020–2021.

Please join us on Wednesday 25th March, 15:30 to 16:30 in the Butler Room, Nuffield college for our upcoming seminar.

A new study published in World Development examines how programmes aimed at strengthening women’s empowerment can influence household decisions about energy use — particularly the adoption of cleaner cooking fuels.

A new study involving LCDS researcher Thomas Rawson examines how social and demographic factors influence COVID-19 vaccine uptake and protection across populations. Published in the journal Vaccine, the research highlights how differences in vaccination behaviour can create unequal protection against infectious disease.

A major international study led by researchers at the Australian National University (ANU) and the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of Oxford, has found that female reproductive cancers significantly reduce women’s overall survival advantage in low-mortality countries.

A new article by LCDS affiliated DPhil Micol Morellini, published in the European Journal of Population, proposes a novel method for evaluating migration theories by examining how well they reproduce the spatial patterns of migration flows.