Iñaki Permanyer, CREA Research Professor, Center for Demographic Studies (CED) will give the next LCDS Seminar, Multimorbidity dynamics in Catalonia, 2010-2021: a population-based cohort study, Thursday May 15, 2:00-3:30pm, Butler Room, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
Abstract
Background: With rising longevity, multimorbidity is an increasingly important challenge for health care systems. We describe trends in prevalence and incidence of multimorbidity across socioeconomic groups in Catalonia.
Methods: We use a random sample of primary care electronic health records from 1,551,126 individuals, including more than 22% of the Catalan population, who are followed from 2010 until 2021. We document age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of multimorbidity stratifying by income groups. Logistic regression models are used to estimate the association between multimorbidity and mortality.
Results: Between 2010 and 2021, the prevalence of multimorbidity has increased for both sexes and all cohorts in our analysis. Importantly, each cohort attains the same ages with higher multimorbidity prevalence than their predecessors did 10 years ago. Older generations are mostly affected by degenerative diseases, while younger ones are more affected by mental health problems. In addition, the prevalence of multimorbidity is higher among women. Incidence tends to vary considerably across generations, with higher levels occurring among the older ones. We observe a strong socioeconomic gradient, with lower income individuals experiencing worse outcomes in multimorbidity prevalence and incidence. Such gradient is persistent and becomes more pronounced at the end of the study period. Across all age groups, individuals experiencing multimorbidity have a higher risk of dying than those who do not.
Conclusion: The documented increases in multimorbidity alongside with its socioeconomic gradients suggest that preventive strategies are urgently needed to defer or prevent its onset and slow its progression – especially among younger generations.
Iñaki Permanyer is an ICREA Research Professor working at the Center for Demographic Studies (CED) since 2010. With a degree in Mathematics, he has a PhD in Demography from the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) since 2007. Before coming to the CED, he has worked in the UAB Economics Department (2000-2008), in the Institute for Economic Analysis (IAE-CSIC, 2007-2008) and in the Department of City and Regional Planning in Cornell University (2008-2010). He has been awarded with several research grants, like the Fulbright Fellowship, the Juan de la Cierva and the Ramón y Cajal fellowships and a Starting Grant (2015-2020) from the European Research Council (ERC). Currently, he is the Head of the “Health and Aging” Unit at the Center for Demographic Studies and is the PI of HEALIN, an ERC Consolidator Grant project (2020-2025). He has more than fifty publications in top field journals like Population and Development Review, PNAS, Demography, the Journal of Development Economics, World Development, Demographic Research.