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Andrea Aparicio Castro

PhD
Senior Research Fellow in Bayesian Digital Demography

Andrea is a Senior Research Fellow in Bayesian Digital Demography at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science (LCDS), where she joined in 2024. At LCDS, Andrea leads the development of statistical and computational Bayesian methods to estimate and nowcast populations in places affected by war and crisis, supporting international humanitarian response.

Andrea has a PhD and an Honorary Research Fellowship in Social Statistics from the University of Manchester. She is also accredited as a Teaching Fellow of the Advance Higher Education Institution. Her research focuses on developing statistical methods that integrate and combine traditional and new forms of data from multiple sources to estimate and forecast demographic events, with an emphasis on migration and mobility. She works primarily within the Bayesian framework, which enables her to correct measurement errors and systematic biases, as well as to impute and smooth out imperfect data.

Before joining Oxford, Andrea worked on various research projects, including the EU-Horizon-2020 funded Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME) initiative, the Internal Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (MIALC) and the International Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (IMILA) projects. She also contributed to developing the Evidence for Equality National Survey (EVENS) and the Rapid Assistance in Modelling the Pandemic (RAMP) group at the University of Manchester. Additionally, Andrea worked as an Associate Lecturer in Social Statistics at University College London and the National University of Colombia.

Publications

Thursday, 05 June 2025
Aparicio Castro, A. et al. (2025) “Estimating and conditional forecasting bilateral migration flows between South America and Europe, 1985-2050”, International Migration Review [Preprint].
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Friday, 12 April 2024
Aparicio Castro, A., Wiśniowski, A. and Rowe, F. (2024) “A Bayesian approach to estimate annual bilateral migration flows for South America using census data”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 187(2), pp. 410–435.
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Sunday, 01 January 2023
Wiśniowski, A. et al. (2023) “The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on ethnic minorities in Manchester: lessons from the early stage of the pandemic.”, Frontiers in sociology, 8, p. 1139258.
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Thursday, 01 July 2021
Vekaria, B. et al. (2021) “Hospital length of stay for COVID-19 patients: Data-driven methods for forward planning.”, BMC infectious diseases, 21(1), p. 700.
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Monday, 01 March 2021
Shryane, N. et al. (2021) “Length of Stay in ICU of Covid-19 patients in England, March - May 2020.”, International journal of population data science, 5(4), p. 1411.
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Thursday, 01 October 2020
Vekaria, B. et al. (2020) “Hospital Length of Stay For COVID-19 Patients: Data-Driven Methods for Forward Planning”, Springer Science and Business Media LLC.
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Wednesday, 23 December 2015
Aparicio Castro, A. and Moreno Castro, J. (2015) “De cómo los lugares con contextos dominados por la desigualdad vuelven ineficaces las labores de las instituciones del Estado”, Revista Colombiana de Sociología, 38(2), pp. 39–65.
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Allen, R. et al. (no date) “The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ethnic Minorities in Manchester”, SSRN Electronic Journal [Preprint].
Andrea Aparicio Castro
This is the alt text
Email
andrea.apariciocastro@demography.ox.ac.uk
Links
Google Scholar
ORCID
LinkedIn
Twitter
Files

Andrea Aparicio Castro

PhD
Senior Research Fellow in Bayesian Digital Demography
This is the alt text
Email
andrea.apariciocastro@demography.ox.ac.uk
Links
Google Scholar
ORCID
LinkedIn
Twitter

Andrea is a Senior Research Fellow in Bayesian Digital Demography at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science (LCDS), where she joined in 2024. At LCDS, Andrea leads the development of statistical and computational Bayesian methods to estimate and nowcast populations in places affected by war and crisis, supporting international humanitarian response.

Andrea has a PhD and an Honorary Research Fellowship in Social Statistics from the University of Manchester. She is also accredited as a Teaching Fellow of the Advance Higher Education Institution. Her research focuses on developing statistical methods that integrate and combine traditional and new forms of data from multiple sources to estimate and forecast demographic events, with an emphasis on migration and mobility. She works primarily within the Bayesian framework, which enables her to correct measurement errors and systematic biases, as well as to impute and smooth out imperfect data.

Before joining Oxford, Andrea worked on various research projects, including the EU-Horizon-2020 funded Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME) initiative, the Internal Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (MIALC) and the International Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (IMILA) projects. She also contributed to developing the Evidence for Equality National Survey (EVENS) and the Rapid Assistance in Modelling the Pandemic (RAMP) group at the University of Manchester. Additionally, Andrea worked as an Associate Lecturer in Social Statistics at University College London and the National University of Colombia.

Files

Publications

Thursday, 05 June 2025
Aparicio Castro, A. et al. (2025) “Estimating and conditional forecasting bilateral migration flows between South America and Europe, 1985-2050”, International Migration Review [Preprint].
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Friday, 12 April 2024
Aparicio Castro, A., Wiśniowski, A. and Rowe, F. (2024) “A Bayesian approach to estimate annual bilateral migration flows for South America using census data”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 187(2), pp. 410–435.
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Sunday, 01 January 2023
Wiśniowski, A. et al. (2023) “The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on ethnic minorities in Manchester: lessons from the early stage of the pandemic.”, Frontiers in sociology, 8, p. 1139258.
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Thursday, 01 July 2021
Vekaria, B. et al. (2021) “Hospital length of stay for COVID-19 patients: Data-driven methods for forward planning.”, BMC infectious diseases, 21(1), p. 700.
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Monday, 01 March 2021
Shryane, N. et al. (2021) “Length of Stay in ICU of Covid-19 patients in England, March - May 2020.”, International journal of population data science, 5(4), p. 1411.
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Thursday, 01 October 2020
Vekaria, B. et al. (2020) “Hospital Length of Stay For COVID-19 Patients: Data-Driven Methods for Forward Planning”, Springer Science and Business Media LLC.
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Wednesday, 23 December 2015
Aparicio Castro, A. and Moreno Castro, J. (2015) “De cómo los lugares con contextos dominados por la desigualdad vuelven ineficaces las labores de las instituciones del Estado”, Revista Colombiana de Sociología, 38(2), pp. 39–65.
Andrea Aparicio Castro
Allen, R. et al. (no date) “The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ethnic Minorities in Manchester”, SSRN Electronic Journal [Preprint].
Andrea Aparicio Castro
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