A new study from the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science reassesses whether rising gender equality can help reverse falling birth rates, a long-standing theory in demography. The research, published in Demographic Research, revisits a prominent 2019 study by Martin Kolk and offers fresh evidence that improvements in gender equality can lead to a modest fertility recovery, but only under specific conditions and not enough to counter broader declines.
The study, led by Haohao Lei, examines fertility trends across 32 countries from 1950 to 2003 using a more comprehensive historical gender equality index that captures multiple dimensions of equality, including education, health, labour participation, and political representation. Earlier research focused primarily on women’s political empowerment, a narrower measure that may have underestimated the relationship.
The findings reveal a conditional U-shaped relationship: fertility tends to fall as gender equality first rises, but stabilises or increases once equality reaches very high levels, after controlling for long-term fertility decline and tempo distortions in period fertility rates. This suggests that previous studies may have missed important dynamics because they used relatively narrow indicators.
However, Lei emphasises that this rebound remains small and cannot offset the strong downward forces shaping fertility across high-income countries. Even societies with advanced gender equality continue to see below-replacement birth rates, driven by factors such as changing life aspirations, labour market pressures, and shifting values around family and work.
The study highlights the central role of gender equality in shaping demographic change while underscoring its limits: improving equality is necessary for supporting family formation, but insufficient to reverse long-term fertility decline on its own.
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