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A new study published in Demographic Research by Mengxue Chen (Australian National University), LCDS researcher Wen Su, and Vladimir Canudas-Romo (ANU) examines how regional mortality change and population movement contributed to China’s rising life expectancy between 2010 and 2020.
Life expectancy in China has risen substantially in recent decades, but large inequalities remain between urban and rural areas, as well as between eastern, central, and western regions. At the same time, China has experienced major internal migration and population redistribution, changing the number of people exposed to different regional mortality risks.
Using data from the Chinese Disease Surveillance Points system, the researchers applied a decomposition method to separate national life expectancy gains into two components: improvements in regional mortality and changes in regional population composition.
The study found that life expectancy at birth increased by 2.6 years for females and 2.7 years for males between 2010 and 2020. Mortality improved across all regions, contributing positively to national gains. Rural regions made particularly large contributions to these mortality improvements, reflecting faster declines in mortality in rural China.
However, changes in regional population composition told a more complex story. Only the urban-east, urban-central, and rural-west regions made positive contributions through this component. Other regions contributed negatively, partially offsetting the gains made through mortality improvements.
The findings show that national life expectancy is shaped not only by whether people are living longer within regions, but also by how populations move and age across regions.
Commenting on the study, Wen Su said: “Decomposition methods are powerful because they let us look beneath national averages. In this case, they show that China’s life expectancy gains were not driven by mortality decline alone. Population redistribution also mattered, because it changed who was exposed to which regional mortality risks.”
The authors argue that understanding these regional dynamics is important for addressing health inequalities in China. They note that future research would benefit from more detailed data at provincial or county level, as well as better information on internal migration patterns.
The paper, “Life expectancy in China and the contribution of regional dynamics”, is published in Demographic Research.
Read the paper here: https://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol54/39/
