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Featured publications

Two New Studies Deepen Our Understanding of the Link between Motherhood and Labour Market Outcomes
18 Feb 2026

Two New Studies Deepen Our Understanding of the Link between Motherhood and Labour Market Outcomes

Two recent publications by Sander Wagner (Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science) provide new evidence on how becoming a mother affects women’s careers, and why these effects matter for gender inequality more broadly. Both studies draw on large-scale administrative labour market data from France and Germany that were harmonised by the authoring team under a DFG–ANR research grant, with the aim of making cross-national research using administrative records more feasible.
New Study Finds Gender Equality Linked to Modest Fertility Rebound – But Not Enough to Reverse Long-Term Decline
20 Nov 2025

New Study Finds Gender Equality Linked to Modest Fertility Rebound – But Not Enough to Reverse Long-Term Decline

A new study from the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science reassesses whether rising gender equality can help reverse falling birth rates, a long-standing theory in demography. The research, published in Demographic Research, revisits a prominent 2019 study by Martin Kolk and offers fresh evidence that improvements in gender equality can lead to a modest fertility recovery, but only under specific conditions and not enough to counter broader declines.

All publications

McCabe, R. et al. (no date) “Epidemiological characteristics and vaccination impact scenario modelling of concurrent Clade I mpox outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi”, medRxiv.
Chamberlain, H. et al. (no date) “Building footprint data for countries in Africa: to what extent are existing data products comparable?”, Research Square.
McCool, E. et al. (no date) “A Novel Protocol for an Experimental Epidemic Game to Study Quarantine Behavior Dynamics: The Epi-Q Study”, SocArXiv.
Karra, M. and Wilde, J. (no date) “Economic Foundations of Contraceptive Transitions: Theories and a Review of the Evidence”, SSRN Electronic Journal.
Andriano, L., Behrman, J. and MONDEN, C. (no date) “Mapping Husbands’ Dominance in Wives’ Health Decision-Making: A Diffusion Perspective in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Demography [Preprint].
Mills, M. et al. (no date) “Identification of 370 loci for age at onset of sexual and reproductive behaviour, highlighting common aetiology with reproductive biology, externalizing behaviour and longevity”, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.081273v1.
McCool, E. et al. (no date) “A Novel Protocol for an Experimental Epidemic Game to Study Quarantine Behavior Dynamics: The Epi-Q Study”, SocArXiv.
Cameron, G., Muellbauer, J. and Snicker, J. (no date) “A study in structural change: relative earnings in Wales since the 1970s”, Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series. University of Oxford.
Muellbauer, J. (no date) “Implications of household-level evidence for policy models: the case of macro-financial linkages”, Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series. University of Oxford.
Keivabu, R., Cozzani, M. and Wilde, J. (no date) “Temperature and Fertility: Evidence from Spanish Register Data”, SSRN Electronic Journal.
Scheiring, G. et al. (no date) “Deindustrialization and the Postsocialist Mortality Crisis”, SocArXiv.
Muellbauer, J. (no date) “When is a housing market overheated enough to threaten stability?”, Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series. University of Oxford.
Muellbauer, J. and Duca, J. (no date) “Tobin Lives: integrating evolving credit market architecture into flow of funds based macro-models”, Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series. University of Oxford.
Thomsen, M. (no date) “Queer Demography: register and survey studies on the lives of sexual and gender minorities.”
Rawson, T. et al. (no date) “How and when to end the COVID-19 lockdown: an optimisation approach”, medRxiv.
Breen, C. and Feehan, D. (no date) “New Data Sources for Demographic Research”, SocArXiv.
Sonabend, R. et al. (no date) “Non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination and the Delta variant: epidemiological insights from modelling England’s COVID-19 roadmap out of lockdown”, medRxiv.
Breen, C. (no date) “Black-White Mortality Crossover: New Evidence from Social Security Mortality Records”, SocArXiv.
Imai, N. et al. (no date) “Quantifying the impact of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study”, medRxiv.
Mood, C. and Jonsson, J. (no date) “Trends in child poverty in Sweden: parental and child reports”, Child Indicators Research [Preprint].